The importance of a bonus expected value (EV) comes from the fact that it allows you to calculate the long-term profitability of a bonus. Playing at a casino should give you an engaging experience, and this is why finding an advantageous option is always crucial.
Even if playing is not about the profits, but the fun, you still shouldn’t waste your funds on an unsatisfactory promotion. You can also test out everything we’ve discussed here with a risk-free bonus code casino, for which you don’t need to deposit.
By the end of this article, you will be able to know everything regarding the casino bonus expected value and how to easily calculate it.
What is a bonus expected value (EV)?
Essentially, the expected value refers to the amount of profit or loss you can expect to receive. Hence, the result can be positive or negative. These calculations are run after you’ve gone through the wagering requirements.
There are some essential steps you’ll be required to take in order to conclude. Let’s explore them together so you can understand them better:
First step: Determining your wager amount
The wagering requirement refers to the amount you must wager before initiating a withdrawal. It is usually between 1x and 99x, but it can go higher for some offers. For example, if you receive a $50 bonus and your wagering requirements are 10x, you will need to wager $500 before withdrawing.
Second step: Calculating the anticipated loss
This is the amount you are expected to lose while you are fulfilling your wagering requirements.
But why should you suffer a loss? First, because casinos operate with a house edge advantage, which means that they will always profit from a percentage of the bet you have placed.
Let us make it clearer:
● Slot machines have an RTP (Return to Player) percentage, which means you’ll get back an amount of your bet, and the rest will go to the casino’s profits.
● If a game has an RTP of 96%, then that percentage of your bet will return to you as a player.
● The remaining 4% will go to the casino, which is what we refer to as the house edge.
Third Step: The formula
To assess each bonus deal, you will need to use a simple formula that will give you the expected value amount:
EV = Bonus Amount − (Wagering Amount x House Edge)
Let’s take the values we’ve discussed above for a better understanding:
$50 − ($500) x 4% = $30
Since the expected value has come out positive, it means that you will be able to win using this bonus in the long term.
Terms and conditions adjustment
You should know that not all terms and conditions are the same for bonuses, and this is why you need to adjust the elements accordingly.
The following are the most crucial ones to take into account:
Game wagering contribution
Don’t forget that not all games contribute the same to the wagering requirements. Most slots have a 100% contribution, while live casinos can have a contribution as low as 10% or none at all.
So, if you bet $5 on a game with a 10% contribution, then only $0.5 will count towards your wagering process. This also means that it will take way longer, and the amount increases. If you have a total of $1,500 and bet on games with a 10% contribution, you will need to wager $15,000 to clear it; hence, your expected loss will increase.
Sticky vs. non-sticky bonuses
When playing at an online platform, you should know that there are two types of bonuses: sticky and non-sticky.
Sticky bonuses
Upon receiving such a promotion, the amount is placed in your account balance. With sticky bonuses, you can place bets, but you can’t withdraw them. So, if you get $50 for a deposit of $20, you’ll have $70. After finishing the wager, you might end up with an amount of $100, but you can only withdraw $50, since the bonus of $50 was a sticky bonus.
Non-sticky bonuses
The advantage of non-sticky bonuses is that you will be able to withdraw them. So, if you deposit $20, this amount will be in your real money balance, and your bonus, let’s say $50, will be in your bonus balance. When placing bets, any amounts will be withdrawn from your real money balance, so when you spend all that sum, the bonus funds take over.
Moreover, if you win using the deposit amount, there is no need to wager in order to make a withdrawal.
UK 10x wagering cap
The UK Gambling Commission has introduced a maximum wagering requirement of 10x the bonus received. Therefore, if you receive a $10 bonus, you should have a maximum wagering limit of $100. This has a positive impact on the expected value as it decreases the overall loss.
Maximum cash-out
Some casino promotions don’t have a maximum withdrawal amount. However, most of them do, and you should always be aware of this term before playing. Note that the maximum cash-out is expressed in a specific amount, such as $100, $300, and so on. But, it can also be a multiplier: 10x the bonus amount or 5x the winnings from free spins.
If you reach the end of a wagering requirement that exceeds the maximum withdrawal amount, your profit is limited. There is no single formula to exactly calculate the expected value in the case of a maximum cash-out. However, you can still minimize the chance of exceeding the cap, allowing you to ultimately suffer a smaller loss.
Ways to maximize a positive expected value
● Select games with a higher RTP. The average is 96%, but you can achieve even higher scores, such as 97% and 98%. The idea is that the lower the house edge, the better your chances of reaching a positive EV.
● Look for low-volatility games, which offer smaller winnings but more frequently. This way, you will be able to place more bets and therefore meet the wagering requirements more easily.
● Ensure you play games that have a 100% wagering contribution, so you fulfill the rollover condition in a shorter time.
● Make sure that you don’t play restricted games. This will result in a void of your potential winnings.
● Don’t exceed the maximum bet allowed, or you will be prone to a terms and conditions breach and lose your winnings.
● Keep playing responsibly and don’t lose track of your time and budget while focusing on the expected value of a bonus.
Conclusion
When redeeming a bonus, ensure it’s advantageous. That’s when the expected value (EV) comes into the equation, because thanks to it, you can get an overall look and see if you can win or lose using the promotion. Don’t forget that this process also entails paying close attention to specific conditions, such as wagering contribution, sticky vs. non-sticky bonuses, slot RTP, and so on.
